Knight Financial

Despite the shortened trading week due to the July 4 holiday, markets digested numerous key economic indicators. On Tuesday, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 49.0, signaling contraction in the manufacturing sector. The decline was driven by weakening new orders and continued softness in export demand, reflecting global economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of elevated interest rates.

Economic data released last week painted a mixed picture of U.S. activity. The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) held steady at 52.0 in June, matching May’s 15-month high and signaling continued expansion. Factory output rose for the first time in four months, and employment in the sector grew at its fastest pace in a year. Meanwhile, the Services PMI rose to 53.1, indicating a stronger pace of growth in the services sector, driven by increased new business and improved demand conditions.

Last week, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, maintaining the federal funds target range at 5.25%–5.50%. While the decision was widely anticipated, attention turned to Fed Chair Powell’s comments and the updated Summary of Economic Projections, which signaled a cautious stance on inflation and a slower path to rate cuts than previously expected. On the housing front, both Building Permits and Housing Starts for May came in lower than anticipated, offering insights into low builder sentiment amid elevated mortgage rates. At only 1.393 million for Building Permits and -9.8% for Housing Starts, economists will be watching to see if this will be a new trend. Meanwhile, as a key driver of gross domestic product (GDP), Core Retail Sales came in at -0.3%, providing a read of possible fatigue in consumer strength and spending behavior.

While last week was lighter on economic data, global headlines were anything but quiet. Trade talks between the U.S. and China took center stage, and rising tensions between Israel and Iran rattled investor confidence. Still, beneath the surface, key inflation data and shifting expectations quietly shaped the market narrative.

Weekly Market Commentary June 9th, 2025 Week in Review... The week began with the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report on Monday, which showed continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. The index came in at 48.5 for May, slightly below...

Last week’s economic data offered a mixed view of the U.S. economy, beginning with a notable rebound in consumer sentiment. On Tuesday, consumer confidence rose sharply in May to 98 from 85.7 in April, reversing five months of declines. The improvement was driven by a significant increase in expectations for future income and business conditions. Current assessments of the economy also improved, though concerns about job availability remained.

Weekly Market Commentary May 27th, 2025 Week in Review... Markets started last week on a quiet note but quickly shifted gears as a flurry of economic data arrived in the second half. Key reports on housing, business sentiment, and inflation expectations gave investors...

Weekly Market Commentary May 19th, 2025 Week in Review... The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year, in line with expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also increased 0.2% on the month, signaling...

Last week was pivotal for market analysts, despite the lower volume of reports. The week was front-loaded with significant data providing crucial insights into various market sectors.

Last week brought a series of economic indicators that painted a cautious picture of the current economic landscape. On Monday, the Conference Board reported a notable drop in the Consumer Confidence Index for April, which fell by 7.9 points to 86.0 — the lowest level since May 2020. This marked the fifth consecutive monthly decline, underscoring mounting pessimism about future business conditions, employment prospects, and income levels. Also on Monday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for March, showing job openings held steady at 7.2 million but were down by 901,000 from a year earlier. The stability in job openings and hires, coupled with an unchanged quit rate, pointed to a cooling labor market and heightened caution among workers.